A study by the National School of Public Health based on mathematical models analysed data from other countries, and allows to foresee what might happen in Portugal.
A study by the National School of Public Health (ENSP) estimates that on average, for each 100 cases of covid-19 in Italy, the most affected country in Europe, Portugal will have seven cases, pointing to a serious scenery in national territory. The study based on mathematical models analysed data from other countries, and makes it possible to forecast what might happen in Portugal, Carla Nunes, researcher and director of ENSP at Universidade Nova de Lisboa, told Lusa. “This forecast is very reliable on the short term, which is of 3 to 5 days. After that time it’s very difficult to make accurate predictions”, said the specialist in epidemiology and statistics. “At the moment the analysis of these models tells that in the phase we’re in, every curve, independently of the country under analysis, is exponential (or similar), that’s to say, they have a sharp growing evolution. The Portuguese curve follows the same path, at its own scale, compared with analogous periods in other countries”, stressed the specialist. “For instance, analysing the 17th day of every curve, we know that for every 100 cases in Italy, we can expect 7 in Portugal. For every 100 in the UK we estimate 130, and for every 100 in Spain we expect 30 new cases in Portugal”. Carla Nunes clarified that these countries were picked because they’re the ones that are more culturally and mathematically adequate for an explanation of the Portuguese curve at different scales. According to the researcher, Portugal is following other countries’ curves at different scales. “We have a behaviour that allows us to see, using other curves, what might happen in the next days, if we stay on the same path”, she referred. “We are on the 17th day of the curve, but they’re already on the 30th or 50th day, so we can predict how many new cases the country could have. These mathematical models have a accuracy of 95% or more, which is brutal.” “That’s what scares me. We’re following along the same path”, said the specialist. Portugal may, however, drift away from these “daunting predictions”: “Evidence tells us that by lowering the rate of contact we lower the rate of transmission”. “In comparison with other countries, Portugal took protective social isolations measures earlier on, which according to the media, were seemingly well adopted by the population”. Last Friday Portugal introduced a new measure, the interruption of school activities, which came into effect on Monday. We’ll need 14 days, the maximum virus transmission period, to understand the impact of this measure. Given the “virus history”, there is still not enough time to know “whether the measure was effective or not”. Carla Nunes reminded that this measure had already been taken in other countries where the impact hasn’t been assessed. “Even in other countries like Italy and Spain, which are already taking more severe measures, there still hasn’t been an indisputable slow down effect”, she noted. “The comparison of political measures among countries is always hard, (given their culture, their health services ability to respond, their population’s adoption of the measure, among other things). So what’s left to us is to do our part: waiting at home and follow the hygienization indications”, Nunes said, underlining that “this is a complex and multidisciplinary problem”. The researcher told Lusa the National School of Public Health (ENSP) is working on a covid-19 barometer, and that they’re already following the situation very closely, taking various points into account: social, economical, public perceptions, epidemiology and access to services, among others. Portugal has registered 2 deaths in 642 cases of infection by the novel coronavirus, according to Wednesday’s report on the effects of the pandemic in country from the Directorate General of Health. Globally, coronavirus is responsible for the covid-19 pandemic that’s infected over 210 thousand people, out of which over 8750 died.